On Wednesday, December 7, the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Council of the year will be held. If you look at this year’s balance sheet, interest rates were raised at every meeting from January to September. The last two meetings were an exception. “We believe that interest rates in Poland have already peaked and that the market is coming to a similar conclusion,” predicted Ebury analysts. “We expect that the December meeting of the Council will be the third in a row without the continuation of the tightening cycle,” admits Bartosz Sawicki, cinkciarz.pl analyst, adding that it has not officially ended, but just stopped.
The end of the year is approaching, but before that happens, the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Council awaits us. The MPC will discuss its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, December 7. From October 2021 to September 2022, the MPC made eleven hikes, raising the NBP benchmark rate to 6.75 percent, the highest level in 20 years.
Let’s recall that the previous meeting of the MPC caused huge emotions. How divided the Polish monetary authorities were, is evidenced by the last hour in the history of the announcement of the decision to keep interest rates at the current level, despite the fact that a minimal majority of observers expected an increase in interest rates to 7.0 percent. However, this did not happen, and the balance should have been outweighed by the content of the NBP’s inflation projection.
This time, the controversies are much less: almost no one expects a new increase. Among other things, because the price pressure in Poland has eased somewhat. In November, inflation slowed down for the first time since February.
– We expect that The December session of the Council will be the third in a row without the continuation of the tightening cycle. It’s not officially finished yet, just stopped. Despite this, we believe that there will be no further increase in interest rates in the coming months, Bartosz Sawicki, an analyst at Cinkciarz.pl, points out in a comment sent to us.
Michał Stajniak, senior analyst at XTB, admits that interest rates can be assumed to remain unchanged during the MPC meeting on December 7. Therefore, in his opinion, all indications of further changes in the long-term perspective will have to be sought in the press release.