Elections 2022: “The PEC will have some influence, the question is how big,” says the political scientist.

Antonio Lavareda, a political scientist and president of Ipespe’s scientific council, said the increase of Auxílio Brasil to R$600 “should have some effect” on the 2022 elections. CNN: this Saturday (16).

Backed by the government, Congress on Thursday (14) passed an amendment that increases the allowance by 400 roubles to the dollar until December.

“It is obvious that there will be some positive change for the president. This will be given in the voting intention. The question is its size,” Lavareda said about President Jair Bolsonaro’s (LL) re-election attempt.

The amendment allows the federal government, beyond the spending ceiling, to spend an additional R$41 billion by the end of the year to expand social benefits, provide financial assistance to truck drivers and taxi drivers, and strengthen food purchases for low-income people. and encourage reduced ethanol taxes. However, the measures are valid only until the end of the year.

The political scientist says the aid should affect voters with family incomes of up to one minimum wage per month. The majority of this sector intends to vote for former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT). Bolsonaro is trying to attract this group and steal votes from his rival in the presidential race.

Lavareda notes that political science studies show that when a negative assessment of the government is long-lasting, that opinion tends to persist. According to the latest Datafolha survey, on June 22 and 23, 50% of voters with a family income of less than 2 minimum wages disapprove of the government.

The political scientist says that after the payment of the first tranche of R600 aid, polls of voting intentions “will help to understand” the scenario.

“If [o cenário] was already so consolidated that this benefit would have little effect, or if it were not a consolidated grievance [da população] and it can be removed with this help,” he said.

A debate

THE: CNN: will hold the first presidential debate of 2022. The clash between the candidates will be broadcast on August 6 live, on television and on our digital platforms.