Experts point out that the conflict is tied for now and that Russia’s biggest weakness is its inability to control the territories it has occupied, which shows some amateurism of Putin’s army.
Eventually a year of conflict between Russia AND Ukraine, recent events show that it is possible to idealize a scenario in which the Ukrainians will emerge victorious, although it is still not possible to nail down who will win. As of September 2022, the army of Vladimir Putin has faced new situations and suffered setbacks, while Ukraine has occupied territories, attacking regions controlled by Russia and even achieved something from the beginning Volodymyr Zelensky asked the allies: the air defense system. The specialists consulted by the portal i New pan point out that we are experiencing a stalemate and that the fight is on. Favorable result for Ukraine, because at the beginning it was emphasized that Russia would take the country in a short time, since its military power is much greater than that of Ukraine. But continued Western aid, which has been present since the beginning of the conflict, has Kiev could react. “This war has turned against Putin. He did not expect that the West would give so much help to Ukraine,” explains Angelo Segrillo, a Brazilian historian specializing in Russia and the Soviet Union, adding that the Russian leader is at a crossroads at the moment and cannot back down, mostly because. he has already invested heavily in the Eastern European conflict.
“War is now Putin’s personal survival. If he loses, he will suffer a coup d’état and risk an attack”, the expert emphasizes. Paulo Velasco, PhD in political science from IESP-UERJ, complements Segrillo’s position by saying that things did not turn out as planned Kremlin predicted when they invaded Ukraine on February 24. “From a practical point of view, including logistics and materiel, the Russians proved too visible and ended up showing a more militarily fragile Russia than was assumed,” he says, adding that Russia’s biggest weakness now is its inability to control territories that it occupies, occupied. For Velasco, this ends up revealing a certain amateurism, mainly due to military power. “We can expect everything from Russia, except military amateurism. This coming and going, advancing and retreating ends up being a sign of amateurism,” says the expert, referring to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev and recently from the city of Kherson, a few days after Putin annexed the region. We share five points that show Russian fragility in the war with Ukraine and that make Zelensky’s army dream of victory.
Putin calls war war
For the first time in eleven months of conflict, Vladimir Putin called the war in Ukraine a war. He classified the invasion as a military operation. “Our objective is not to turn the wheel of the military conflict, but rather to put an end to this war,” the leader declared during a press conference at the end of December. In March 2022, a month after the invasion, the Russian head of state signed laws that provide for heavy fines and prison terms for discrediting or spreading “deliberately false information” about the Armed Forces, putting people in risk prosecution if they call the war by its name. . For Angelo Segrillo, Putin calling the conflict a war was a slip, however, he warns that it could be a strategy of the Russian leader. “He made a military mobilization and mobilizing without being at war is contradictory. I think it was an unintentional moment,” he says. Since the ‘blunder’, Putin has no longer used the term war to refer to the conflict. However, the deviation in the president’s speech created a demand for an internal investigation. A St Petersburg politician, Nikita Yuferev, has asked prosecutors to investigate Putin for using the word “war” to describe the war in Ukraine, accusing the Kremlin chief of violating his own law. However, the opposition councilor believes his legal challenge will lead nowhere, but he has requested an investigation to uncover what he calls the “falsehood” of the system.
Russia loses 89 soldiers in a single day
Shortly after Putin called the war a war, Russia suffered its biggest one-day casualty when 89 soldiers, all reservists, were killed in the town of Makiivka, in eastern Ukraine, after a drone strike. The Russians, who blame Ukrainians for the attacks although Kiev has not claimed responsibility, also blamed the misuse of mobile phones for what happened. They argue that the device transmitted a signal and helped determine the location of an ammunition cache. “It is now clear that the main reason for what happened was the activation and mass use of mobile phones in the range of the enemy’s weapons,” they stated. In the face of what happened, Vladimir Putin’s military has been the target of criticism, especially commanders – Russia appointed its third in less than a year of conflict.
The head of the RT network, the Kremlin’s international propaganda arm, called for the names of Russian commanders and “their responsibilities” to be released. “It is time to understand that impunity does not lead to social harmony. Impunity leads to new crimes. And, consequently, to public dissent”, wrote Margarita Simonian on Telegram. Russian war correspondents accused the country’s commanders of failing to learn from their past mistakes and shifting the blame to the soldiers. The Rybar Telegram account, which has a million followers, called it “criminally naive” to store army ammunition near dormitories. For his part, pro-Russian separatist leader Denis Pushilin praised the “heroism” of the surviving soldiers, who “risked their lives” to “rescue their comrades” from under the rubble.
Zelensky’s departure to the USA
At the end of last year, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, left the country. He went to the US to meet US leader Joe Biden and address Congress. For Segrillo, this visit was symbolic and gave the idea of security, as if Zelensky said “I can do this. I am no longer a prisoner of my country and I do not have to hide. I can go out into the world.” During his meeting with Biden, Zelensky heard from the ally that he will receive help as long as it is needed, and yet he got something he asked for from the beginning: the air security system. “We will continue to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, especially air defense,” Biden told Zelensky as the two sat by the fireplace in the Oval Office. On this occasion, the US announced a new aid package worth 45 billion dollars for Ukraine for 2023, and Biden congratulated the Ukrainian for his leadership. “His leadership inspired people. It’s important that people hear directly from him about the need to remain unique in 2023,” Biden said.
Air defense system for Ukraine
Ukraine received from the Allies something they had been asking for since the start of the conflict: an air defense system that could counter Russian attacks. After many requests, it was granted and now has Patriot, a system that is capable of shooting down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and aircraft at a significantly higher ceiling than previously supplied air defense systems, according to US Secretary of State. Antony Blinken in a statement. Ukraine’s air defenses played a key role in defending the country from Russian attacks, as well as preventing Moscow’s forces from taking control of the skies. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podoliak said in an interview with AFP that Ukraine could win the war this year if Western countries multiply arms shipments, especially long-range missiles, and promised that these systems would not be used to attack Russian territory. “We will not attack Russia. We are fighting an exclusively defensive war,” he insisted.
Last week, the United States announced new military aid to Ukraine, worth more than $3 billion, with 50 Bradley infantry tanks and dozens of other armored vehicles. THE Germany has announced that it will supply Kiev with 40 Marder light armored vehicles, which will serve as troop carriers and a Patriot air defense battery. France has announced that it will send AMX-10 RC light tanks, but has not specified how many. Since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries that support the former Soviet republic have given it financial and military support, especially with the supply of cannons. Russia has responded to these deployments by saying they will only prolong the suffering of Ukrainians and not change the balance of power on the ground. “Europe, NATO and the United States have poured billions of dollars into Ukraine and arms shipments,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press. “Fundamentally, these shipments cannot and will not change anything. These shipments will only prolong the suffering of the Ukrainian people,” added Peskov.
isolation from Russia
As the war extends, Russia becomes more isolated due to Western sanctions and its military is discredited, so much so that domestically there is already criticism of the commanders. This scenario is not useful and it is dangerous, especially if one considers its military dimension, warns political science doctor Paulo Velasco. “I don’t think it’s prudent to continue to isolate Russia and impose sanctions, because Russia, not just anyone, is a major nuclear power actor, even superior to the US, it’s not prudent to simply isolate it. This is a danger to the world and global instability. For him, “the most prudent thing would be to try to create or create a window of opportunity for a dialogue and a solution,” he says.
Experts say that all these points are important and confirm that they are a victory for Ukraine, but emphasize that it is still not possible to determine a winner. “It is still too early to think about the victory of either side. These difficulties that Russia has had since August led to a victory in the classical sense, a military victory on the part of Ukraine,” adds Velasco. “I would not say that we can predict a victory for one side or the other, but I would say that the war is at a technical stalemate and, unless new facts occur, it will probably be a long-term war. ”, says Professor Angelo Segrillo, who believes that the conflict could become something similar to that between the Koreas, in which there was no peace agreement, but there is a truce to this day. “I have the impression that this conflict is heading towards a frozen conflict,” he says. Despite the fragility, Russia seems to have found a way to win again. Putin’s troops are ready to occupy the city of Soledar. The capture of the region would mean a symbolic military victory for Moscow, after several setbacks by Russian troops on the ground since September. The town is known for its salt mines and has been the target of a Russian offensive for weeks. The municipality, which before the conflict had about 10,000 inhabitants, is close to Bakhmut, which the Russians have been trying to occupy for months.