Identity among mega-competitors
In terms of grand electoral strategy, nothing resembles Jair Bolsonaro more than Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. This observation was made some time ago by an expert on Brazilian politics, then Senator Jose Antonio Regufe from the Federal District.
And this was fully confirmed by the speech of each of them in the last year’s presidential elections. Reguf said that, as Lula did in his presidential campaigns, Jair Bolsonaro has been betting all along on a solid core of loyal followers, even if they represent 30% of the electorate or even less.
He believed that these would be enough to carry him through to the second round, and that the rest of the support that would come during the campaign would arrive in time to give him victory. That, according to Reguf, is something Lula has done in other campaigns and repeated last year.
Throughout, Lula spoke mostly to converts. Experts said there was no need to pander to the Todes crowd because they would definitely vote for him. However, Lula did just that, securing his religious third of the vote.
Later, he even raised external forces, but only by talking about democracy, never surrendering to the agenda of the party-political front. Gravity won out. It remains to be noted that for this the polarization strengthened in recent years is necessary. But for this both Lula relied on Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro relied on Lula.
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