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Inflation will continue to increase in the following months due to the increase in fuel prices

The economist and professor at FAC-PS stated that the increase in interest rates is in line with the current scenario of economic uncertainty; “The situation for the next few months is not calm”, the expert emphasizes

Photo: ROMILDO DE JESUS/FUTURA PRESS/FUTURA PRESS/ESTADÃO CONTEÚDO – 1/4/22Fuel price table at Salvador station
Fuels are one of the main culprits of inflation in the Brazilian economy

O Expanded National Index of Consumer Prices (IPCA) rose 0.84%, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The agency emphasized that the increase in spending on education has increased the rate of inflation, especially in basic education. The month of February is always marked by the readjustment of tuition fees of educational institutions in the back-to-school season. The Jornal da Manhã team spoke with Denis Medina, an economist and professor at the Faculty of Commerce in São Paulo. “These are expressive figures, especially when we look at what has happened in the last period, when the indices have always shown lower values. With this, the value of 0.87% in January is the highest in the last ten months”, he informed. As for the impact of education, the specialist said that the adjustments of monthly fees compared to last year – which occur in the month of February – are characteristic of the second month of the year. The professor also recalled that the increase in fuel prices – recently announced by the federal government – will cause the March index to rise as well. “A low number is not expected, precisely because we have not seen the impact, which does not affect fuels, but commercial and industrial goods are transported by vehicles that use gasoline. The expectation of inflation for the following months is not easy”, he emphasized.

Denis also spoke about the pressure exerted by the federal government on high interest rates in Brazil – Selic rate, set at 13.75%. “The high interest rate is precisely to try to curb inflation. But when it is renewed, it exerts more inflationary pressure. Some factors show that we do not have effective control over inflation,” he said. The expert also warns that the consequences of high interest rates fall precisely on the less favored population, which requires a higher percentage of their income to buy the same product as someone with more resources. “The problem is that throughout the year prices increase and we have a salary adjustment once a year. This situation is harming the poorest”, he analyzed. Asked about the new fiscal framework, which should be presented to the Lula government by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning, Denis emphasized that public spending has increased since the beginning of Lula’s administration with the approval of the CEC Fura Teto. along with a growing collection. “Haddad asked to increase the tax revenue, he is increasing the tax burden, but he said that the spending ceiling is not the best solution and he did not bring an alternative. There is no. In the previous government, we had record collections, despite the exception”, he concluded.

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