North Devon could change hands at the next general election based on current voting trends, according to polling firm YouGov.
Its new poll predicts the Tories will lose 26 of their 64 seats in England’s Lib Dem battleground, with Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab and senior Tory Jeremy Hunt among those voted out.
Also at risk is North Devon MP Seline Saxby, who has a majority of almost 15,000. YouGov says the Lib Dems are currently tipped to win the seat for the first time since 2010.
But there is better news for Devon’s other Tory MPs as Anne Marie Morris is predicted to defend her seat of Newton Abbot with a 42-27 per cent lead over the Lib Dems.
Neighboring Torbay and Totnes are set to remain blue if elections are held tomorrow, although Kevin Foster and Anthony Mangnall would see their majorities cut by seven and four per cent respectively.
The poll comes after the Tories lost Tiverton and Honiton to the Lib Dems last month, a seat it had previously held in one form or another for almost a century.
Richard Foord overthrew Neil Parish by 24,000 – the biggest ever in a by-election.
Despite this, the Conservatives still dominate Devon’s parliamentary seats, holding nine of the 12.
Mr Foord is the only Liberal, while Labor has two seats – Exeter and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport.
At the next election, expected boundary changes will mean more MPs for Devon, including one with a constituency extending into Cornwall.
Patrick English, associate director of YouGov, said: “While constituencies would fall to the Lib Dems across the country… perhaps the most significant losses come in the South West, where we estimate that the Conservative vote share has fallen by more than 16 points. 2019.
“Of the 20 constituencies included in the definition, eight would go to the Liberal Democrats.
“This includes the ‘Celtic Fringe’ Conservative seats identified by YouGov earlier this month in Wells, North Cornwall, St Ives, North Devon and Taunton Deane.”
YouGov recently said that East Devon is expected to go independent if former candidate Claire Wright stands again.
She fought the last three general elections but appeared to retire from politics last year after deciding not to seek re-election to Devon County Council.
The next general election should be held by the end of January 2025.
However, it could be announced sooner following the recent repeal of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which required a two-thirds majority to vote in general elections.
It is now up to the Prime Minister to decide when to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament so that an election can be held.